Tony Awards predictions 2026: 'The Lost Boys' vs. 'Schmigadoon!'

I’m afraid my Tony predictions may have gone off the rails. Bad for me, good for you. 1 Minute Critic participated in Broadway Scorecard’s Beat the Critics content, where participants have a chance to win a $200 gift card from TodayTix. Pick the Tonys, beat a critic, win a prize— one winner will be drawn randomly from all entries that outscore at least one featured critic. (Full rules here.)

I have one of the best jobs in the world: seeing theater. I caught nearly every Broadway show of the season. I didn’t review them all, and I don’t believe in a “chief critic” position. 1 Minute Critic was founded on celebration rather than gatekeeping, and the more diverse voices, the better. Certain kinds of work resonate with me, personally, but the one constant I always keep in mind is “why?”

Why does a show resonate? What is it about a performance that makes my stomach all squeamish in a good way? What’s the point in investing millions of dollars to tell a story at a particular moment in time?

Why I voted like a fan, not a producer

LJ Benet and Ali Louis Bourzgui in "The Lost Boys." Photo by Matthew Murphy. — “The Lost Boys.” Photo by Matthew Murphy.

Sara Chase and Max Clayton in the Broadway production of "Schmigadoon!" — “Schmigadoon!” Photo by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman.

But here’s the hitch: I’m not a Tony voter—yet. Each May, the Broadway League hosts its Spring Road Conference, where producers schmooze over which productions will tour. Broadway is a for-profit business, and an 11 o’clock number only matters if it sells tickets in Cleveland.

After locking my votes for GALECA’s (the Society of LGBTQ+ Entertainment Critics) Dorian Theater Awards, I realized I had completely shut out one of the major contenders. And when I submitted my picks for Broadway Scorecard’s contest, I similarly followed my gut instinct. But as a theater patron, not as a producer.

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Now, I’m second-guessing my pick, but I hope I’m wrong. No discredit to any of the nominees, but The Lost Boys was the one new musical that made my blood pump. A score by The Rescues, a Broadway-caliber scenic design with all the bells and whistles you’d hope for given the ticket price, and Michael Arden’s direction, which creates a mesmerizing world filled with camp, heart, and suspense.

But Schmigagoon!, based on the short-lived Apple TV series, is a confection, and easier to take out on the road. Will Tony voters cave in to their sweet tooth, or opt for a new musical with more meat on its bones?

My heart says The Lost Boys. The Tony voters’ sweet tooth may say otherwise. I’ll be watching and dancing around my apartment either way.